Ferrous Market

At the start of January, scrap suppliers were optimistic. Many experts expected February ferrous scrap prices to rise another $10–$20 per gross ton, marking a third straight month of increases.

Then winter hit — hard.

Beginning January 19, two major Arctic storms swept across more than 40 states, stretching over 2,000 miles. The extreme cold, snow, and ice caused major disruptions:

  • Scrap flows slowed significantly
  • Many scrap yards couldn’t operate equipment (shredders, balers, cranes struggle in frigid temps)
  • Transportation of scrap and finished steel was restricted

Looking ahead, suppliers may not get much help from export markets. Turkish mills — a key buyer — are currently facing weak steel demand and tight margins due to high scrap costs.

As the weather improves, scrap flows are expected to increase sharply. If supply rebounds quickly, domestic steel mills may try to push prices back down after February’s increases.

Non-Ferrous Market

The non-ferrous markets have been extremely volatile over the past 30 days.

Even though global economic data has been soft — with many (PMI) readings below 50 (a sign of contraction) — the U.S. manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose from 45.8 in December to 51.6 in January. That marks the first expansion reading in 12 months.

Copper

Copper prices remain historically high and highly volatile. Combined with large price swings in the futures markets, many buyers are staying cautious — purchasing only what they need for immediate production.

High copper prices are being driven by:

  • Ongoing government policy uncertainty
  • Concerns about global supply shortages
  • Strong demand from data centers, power grids, EV production, and renewable energy

However, some respected market analysts believe copper prices are being driven more by speculation than true economic fundamentals.

Aluminum

Aluminum has also seen major price swings.

The Midwest premium hit a record $1.04 per pound, before settling at $1.02 last week.

Scrap aluminum prices remain strong due to:

  • Continued export demand
  • Winter weather limiting supply

Still, many fabricators are buying only what they absolutely need.

Nickel

Nickel has experienced dramatic daily swings — moving as much as $1,330 per metric ton in a single day — before ending the month down $385 per metric ton overall.

There continues to be a disconnect between LME nickel prices and stainless steel scrap prices. Demand from domestic stainless steel mills remains weak.

Bottom Line

  • Ferrous: Weather disruptions tightened supply, but prices could face pressure as flows rebound.
  • Copper & Aluminum: Prices remain historically high and volatile, with buyers staying cautious.
  • Nickel: Volatile futures markets, but weak stainless scrap demand continues.

 

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