October 2024 – Market Update
Ferrous Market
After the September domestic ferrous scrap market settled mostly sideways in the Midwest, the consensus amongst most market participants was that this market had bottomed out. Further, market participants also felt that the domestic ferrous scrap market was poised for a modest price increase in the 4th quarter. The only question was whether any such increase would occur in October. Domestic steel mills on the other hand initially took the strong position that October scrap prices should remain sideways while at the same time acknowledging that scrap price increases were on the table for 4th quarter. They believed their position was fortified by the fact that prices were stagnant and hadn’t really changed in the last 30 days. Further, there are 16 scheduled mill outages taking place in October that will reduce the amount of scrap the domestic mills need to buy this month.
Looking forward, there may be room for another small increase in November or December that could be fueled by slower scrap flows, extreme weather conditions, or some other unforeseen event.
Non-Ferrous Market
Domestic mill demand for secondary aluminum scrap remains muted in the face of slowness in the automotive sector. However, ADC ingot prices are up slightly, and overseas demand continues to be relatively strong for secondary aluminum grades.
Domestic mill demand for 300 series stainless steel scrap remained soft during the summer and is continuing into October. Scrap prices for 304 stainless steel were relatively flat during the last 30 days while prices for 316 have risen a few cents a pound. Export demand for all grades of stainless steel scrap has steadily declined in 2024 and are not expected to recover any time soon.
Comex copper prices still rose during the last 30 days with scrap copper prices rising and falling in close parallel with Comex prices. Demand for bare scrap copper units domestically and overseas remains good and is expected to improve going forward. Demand for brass scrap is slowly improving with yellow brass leading the way.
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