March 2025 – Market Update
Ferrous Market
After two consecutive months of price increases in the domestic ferrous scrap market, markets were projecting
a strong sideways market for March. By the last week in February, market sentiment took on a bullish tone as intakes were off across the country. Mill order books were improving, resulting in increased demand for scrap. The announcement on March 2 that the impending 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods that included ferrous and non-ferrous scrap would go in effect on March 3rd. Even though our government reversed course on March 6th pausing, the implementation of the 25% tariffs on goods that included recycled materials, almost every domestic mill shut down tonnage and price negotiations through the end of last week as the domestic market looked for clarity. As of yesterday morning, a battle royal continues in the Mid-West, East, and Southeast regions with sellers looking for increases of $30 GT on prime, $25-$30 GT on shreds, and $20 GT on P&S/HMS while most mills are trying to cap their March buys at plus $20 GT or less. Looking forward, it should be noted that there is a growing disparity between our domestic scrap prices (wherever they settle) and much cheaper export prices throughout the world. History tells us that such disparity doesn’t last very long. It seems more likely that domestic scrap prices will hit their peak in March.
Non-Ferrous Market
Copper markets continue to face a tremendous amount of uncertainty as to how the tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will play out. Last week after the tariff on copper went into effect last Tuesday, the volatility in both terminal markets is expected to continue at least through March. Domestic mills are already filled up for March and awaiting further clarity in the marketplace. Demand for red and yellow brasses remains good both domestically and overseas.
Aluminum prices rose during the last 30 days. Scrap prices for extrusions and segregated alloys continue to rise on tight supplies and the rising Midwest premium. Secondary scrap prices are gradually improving due mostly to tight supplies with a high percentage of available scrap staying in the domestic market.
Nickel has had the tamest reaction to the tariffs during the last 30 days. 300 series stainless steel scrap prices have stayed fairly flat over the last 30 days with weak domestic mill demand and lack of supply balancing out.
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