April 2025 – Market Update
Ferrous Market
Several factors clearly indicated that ferrous scrap prices had peaked in March and a potential storm was brewing for the April domestic scrap market: 1) confusion and uncertainty about the possible effects of the tariffs to be announced on April 2 put a damper on consumer confidence; 2) PMI’s around the world reported numbers under 50 indicating that most steel producing countries were in contraction; 3) weak demand for finished steel products in SE Asia and Europe equated to lesser demand for ferrous scrap; 4) political uncertainty in Turkey in conjunction with the Eid al-Fitr holiday led to Turkish steel mills limiting their buying activity; 5) domestic ferrous scrap flows have increased 25% since the beginning of the year plus close to 150,000 tons of prime scrap originating from Europe arrived in March creating an extreme overhang of ferrous scrap for April; 6) Export demand for ferrous scrap shipments to Turkey and SE Asia was and is mediocre at best; and 7) several mills sent out end of the month cancellation notices for March scrap deliveries plus notices of new outages for April. Considering all of these factors, it was not surprising that the domestic mills took an aggressive approach to filling their April purchase programs with initial offers down $30-$50 GT from their March purchase prices. Consumer confidence has been and is declining with the confusion and uncertainty in the marketplaces. All of this leads us to believe that the current scrap overhang will continue into May which may drive domestic scrap prices down.
Non-Ferrous Market
Copper, aluminum, and nickel have been in upheaval during the last 30 days caused by the uncertainty in the way the prospective tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were going to turn out.
Copper daily volatility is expected to continue until such time as the confusion and uncertainty about the tariffs and retaliatory tariffs evolve into some sense of clarity. Domestic mills are bought out through May with extremely wide spreads. Copper and brass scrap prices have followed the downward trajectory in Comex.
LME aluminum prices were down before April 2nd, continued down thru mid-day April 9th for a net loss of $332 MT during the last 30 days. Scrap prices for extrusions and segregated alloys have fallen. Secondary scrap prices have softened because of the weakness in the export arena caused by the uncertainty in the worldwide tariff situation.
Mill demand for stainless steel scrap remains weak, but scrap prices have declined following the drop in LME nickel.
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