Heading into October, U.S. steel mills were looking to cut scrap metal prices to make up for recent struggles in the steel market. Over the past few months, hot-rolled coil (HRC) — the steel used in many manufacturing and construction applications — has dropped about $150 per ton, hitting a low of around $780 per ton in September, the weakest level since February.
Steel demand stayed soft through the summer, with many buyers purchasing only what they needed and keeping inventories light. Recently, prices have recovered slightly to around $800 per ton, and mills are hoping this marks the bottom. To help stabilize prices, some mills are scheduling maintenance shutdowns that reduce production and lengthen delivery times — a move designed to tighten supply and encourage buyers back into the market.
On the scrap metal side, things are still sluggish globally. Demand for finished steel remains weak in parts of Asia and Turkey, while China and Russia continue exporting cheaper semi-finished steel, pushing down demand for scrap.
Exports provided a small boost — especially shipments to Turkey — but Canada and Mexico shipped large amounts of prime scrap into the U.S., adding to an already plentiful supply.
Looking ahead, if steel prices have truly bottomed near $800 per ton, we could see scrap prices hold steady through the rest of the year as supply and demand find a balance.
In non-ferrous (copper, aluminum, and nickel), September was mostly calm until a few major disruptions hit.
These events shook up the markets, but overall, global economic indicators (like manufacturing activity) remain weak, suggesting that long-term demand is still slow.
Copper:
Copper prices jumped from about $4.56/lb to $5.15/lb after the mine disruptions, before dropping back roughly $0.25/lb. That volatility has carried through to scrap prices — especially in red and yellow brass — which followed the same up-and-down trend. Export demand for copper and brass remains stronger than domestic demand.
Aluminum:
Despite the Novelis fire, aluminum prices haven’t moved much. LME aluminum is up slightly, and the Midwest premium — the extra cost for U.S. delivery — has reached a record $0.78/lb. Analysts expect it could climb higher before leveling off. Scrap aluminum prices, including extrusions and alloy grades, are stable but still soft due to weak domestic demand.
Nickel & Stainless:
Nickel prices have stayed mostly flat, and demand for 300-series stainless steel scrap is low both domestically and abroad. With more scrap available and less being used, prices are under mild downward pressure, and demand for finished stainless products is not expected to pick up before the end of the year.
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