December 2025 Metal Market Update
As we wrapped up November, most industry experts expected the December ferrous scrap market to remain steady. Scrap flows were slowing, steel mill utilization was around 76%, and mills were preparing for typical year-end inventory adjustments.
But by the end of the month, things shifted quickly.
Ferrous Scrap Market Update
What Changed?
A few key factors pushed prices upward:
- Steel prices climbed — Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) jumped $50/NT in 30 days.
- Turkish mills increased buying, driving export demand and nudging prices higher.
- Severe weather hit early — three significant polar vortex systems brought extreme cold across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Central U.S.
These freezing conditions slowed:
- Scrap inflows
- Outdoor processing
- Scrap shipments
Because of this, domestic mills had no choice but to raise December buying prices to secure enough material.
December Price Movement
- Shred, HMS, P&S: Up $20/GT nationwide
(These grades tied closely to export demand.)
- Prime scrap: Up $10/GT nationwide
After tough negotiations—mills pushed for flat pricing, citing a large surplus in Canada, but suppliers held firm.
Looking Ahead to January 2025
Prices may continue to move slightly higher due to:
- Severe weather limiting scrap supply
- Year-end holidays reducing processing and hauling
- Mills expecting increased demand for finished steel
Non-Ferrous Market Update
General Trends
- Copper and aluminum hit new highs over the last month.
- Nickel trended slightly downward.
- A possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut may boost demand in early 2025.
- Year-end slowdowns continue, as mills reduce buying to work through inventory.
- Global PMIs in the U.S., EU, and China remain below 50, signaling economic contraction.
Copper Market
Comex copper hit an all-time high of $5.45/lb driven by:
- Global supply concerns
- Strong industrial demand
- Anticipation of interest rate cuts
- LME warehouse inventory falling below 100,000 MT
- Increased canceled warrants
- Possible new 2026 copper tariffs
- Glencore cutting copper mine output by 90,000 MT
Copper scrap prices are up, though not as fast as refined markets.
Brass demand remains steady, with pricing rising alongside copper.
Aluminum Market
- LME aluminum up $231/MT in 30 days
- Midwest Premium slightly down from the record, now around $0.88/lb
- Scrap grades (6063, 3003/5052) up $0.05/lb
- Other grades holding steady
- Secondary alloy scrap stable due to export demand
Most domestic mills built up large inventories and have reduced December buying.
Nickel & Stainless Steel Market
- LME nickel down $145/MT over the last month
- 300-series stainless scrap faces:
- Adequate supplies
- Seasonal slow mill demand
- Weak export activity
These pressures are pushing prices lower, and downstream demand remains soft heading into the new year.
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