Scrap Metal Market Update – July Outlook
Ferrous Market
As May wrapped up, scrap suppliers and domestic steel mills finally seemed to agree: ferrous scrap prices have likely hit their bottom.
Summer typically brings a seasonal slowdown in domestic scrap demand. Mills often schedule maintenance shutdowns, and automakers pause for model changeovers. Currently, scrap supply and demand appear balanced, with no major price shifts expected—except for prime scrap on the West Coast, which saw slight movement.
Looking ahead to July, the market will need to navigate ongoing weakness in hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices. However, a continued drop in scrap flows during the summer could help offset that pressure. Mills are being cautious not to let supplies fall short of what they need.
Non-Ferrous Market
For much of the past month, copper, aluminum, and nickel markets were relatively stable—until June 30. That’s when the government announced an additional 25% tariff on aluminum and steel under Section 232, sparking market volatility.
This led to:
Still, domestic copper mills are showing lukewarm demand. Most have already met their June needs and are close to covering July as well. Red and yellow brass prices have also climbed alongside copper.
As summer continues, domestic demand for extrusion and alloy scrap typically dips, while overall scrap supply tends to rise. That means prices for secondary aluminum scrap are likely to soften. Nickel continues to slide due to weak domestic and export demand heading into the slower summer season.
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